Tucson Real Estate In The News

There is now official Tucson Air Show for 2008 but there is a place you can go to get some great shots of aircraft coming in for a landing. Check our Tucson Reid Park Air Show.

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The “Arizona Daily Star” likes to give out Thorns and Flowers for various issues. I’m giving out Flowers with Thorns in this post in hope it will turn into all flowers soon.

Three months ago the Tucson MLS instituted a $250 fine for status changes entered more than 48 hours after the date of the change. The only time when it is easy to track these violations is at the end of the month when all closed transactions are to be turned in on time for the data pull for the Monthly Statistics Report.

We know what is in the report for the number of closed transactions and we know what comes in later as we can pull this data live from the MLS system.

In March there were 900 transactions reported the system shows 929 recorded. Twenty nine added after the data pull.

In April 973 transactions reported today 1003 in the data. This is 30 transactions more than were reported.

Doing the Math

• 30 X $250 = $7,500 February
• 29 X $250 = $7,250 March
• 30 X $250 = $7,500 April

That’s 89 closed transactions in three months that are not included in the data. It is next to impossible to go back each month and recaculate the previous month and the current month. However, look at how the numbers are skewed in these two months.

What does it mean? It means it is time to raise the fine. It obviously isn’t painful enough yet to get these transactions entered on time. IT IS TIME TO RAISE THE FINE.
The Arizona Daily Star picks up these numbers and reports them before most of us even know there is a report available.

Don’t you think 1003 closed transactions for April would have been better than 973. The psychological benefit of breaking 1000 sales is significant.

Conclusion: Thank you for instituting this policy, In June of 2007 there were 146 transactions entered late. In the first 10 months more than 800 were entered late for the year. This accounted for 7% of the total transactions for that period of time. Getting it down to 30 is better. Now it is time to RAISE THE FINE even higher. It is in all of our best interest to be releasing to the media and the public the most accurate figures we can attain.

Did I mention IT IS TIME TO RAISE THE FINE?

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Usually we just report the overall averages and numbers of Closed Transactions.  Lately I’ve been doing some breaking down of these numbers into Type of Construction.  I’m going to go back and look at more of these breakdown from previous months this year.  I’ve also started looking for micor trends inside the SFR transactions which are by for the bulk of the closed transactions each month.

Here’s the breakdown by type:

So you can see the impact on the total numbers residences of different types impact the overall figures.  This is why you should never look at the overall average asking and sales price to determine where the market it at the moment.  It is better to find out what type of construction is involved and narrow your search to that type.

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It took till the 10th day of the 5th month to get the 1000th closed transaction entered into the system, but sometime today while I was out showing homes it happened.

We tettered there for two days, but finally make the 1000 mark today.

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I’ve felt like an auctioneer all day long. I check the closed transactions counts about once every 30 minutes since early this morning. I didn’t think we could close ground on the nearly 30 transactions we needed to get to 1000 for the month.

980 do I hear 981?

We have 985 do I hear 986?

991, I have 991. Do I hear 1000?

I think I hear 1000. If the trend for late entries of the past three months are any indicator we just might make it yet. All things considered, taxes due in April, the media converage (in an election year all things are to be 100 times worse than they are not just 75 times). Finally, the current state of real estate in this country to have 1000 closed transactions is an indication of a healthy (healthier than expected) Tucson real estate market.
Averages:

• Asking Price: $265,109
• Sale Price: $253,251

This represents 95.52% of asking price to sale price ratio.

Do I hear 992?

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Want to take a guess?

No it isn’t that housing is being rationed in Tucson.

No it isn’t that houses are cheaper to buy than a bag of rice.

Here is why I’m not worried about the price of rice.

(Image courtesy stock.xchng - the free photo site)

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Could we make it to 1000 for April 2008?

Right now there are 915 closed transactions entered into the Tucson MLS System for April 2008.  This is more than were reported for March 2008.  The deadline for entering transactions (without a fine) for April isn’t until midnight on May 2.

We will be doing some analysis of the data once those numbers are in.  Pending contracts will also be of interest as we move into what already appears to be a very strong month for closings in May.

For the Data Junkies out there here is how the Residental stats are at the moment in summary form.

Averages:

• List Price  $263,535
• Sale Price $252,038
• Sale Price 95.63% of List Price

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Really Do you believe what they are saying in the Arizona Daily Star?

Looks like things are really bad doesn’t it?

Looks like we should all board up our houses and go live in our cars.

When the real threat are the Giant Man Eating Hybiscus invading Tucson.

Read this and tell me which you think is the real threat.

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Another indicator of the stability of not only the Tucson Real Estate Market but Tucson itself is the article published in Smart Money’s February issue. The article “Seven Places to retire in an economic downturn” put Tucson as one of those desirable places to consider. Some of the things mentioned in Tucson’s favor.

• A warm, sunny climate
• cost of living that’s 3% below the national average
• housing costs 20% below the national average
• average sale price for existing homes dropped just 0.01% in 2007

Add to this list the fact that Tucson Property taxes average between 1 and 1.5% making it one of the lowest property tax communities in the country.

Tucson is a very desirable place to retire and live.

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If you own a Tucson condo and you are thinking about selling it, it is about to get much harder.

If you are thinking about buying a Tucson Condo unit. The financing is about to become very restrictive.

Kenneth Harney’s article “Securing a loan on a condo unit might now become far tougher” is a must read.

While not directed at the Tucson Condo Market specifically, he tells of new restrictions going into place by AIG United Guaranty a major private mortgage insurer and Frannie Mae new procedures that some lenders and mortgage brokers say could tighten up the availability of loans to condo purchasers.

If you are interested in purchasing or already own a Tucson Condo Unit this article is a must read for you.

For buyers paying cash it won’t be an issue.  For sellers of Tucson Condo Units it is a different story.  And if you are thinking about buying you should be aware of what might be an issue when you go to sell.

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• Apr 17 : Conventional Loan 25% Down The New Norm
• Apr 14 : Tucson MLS Statistics for March 2008
• Apr 7 : Monday Morning Moment 900 Closed Transaction Tucson MLS
• Apr 4 : Tucson MLS Statitics March 2008 Garbage In Garbage Out
• Mar 31 : Tucson MLS Preliminary Closed Transactions March 2008 (800)
• Mar 29 : Tucson MLS March 2008 Preliminary Closed Transactions Data 733
• Mar 24 : Tucson Real Estate News Today
• Mar 19 : Tucson MLS Statistics for February 2008
• Mar 1 : Tucson MLS February 2008 Preliminary Closed Transactions 633
• Feb 27 : Tucson MLS Statistics for January 2008
• Feb 21 : Tucson MLS 2007 Annual Statistics Report
• Feb 19 : Tucson Real Estate Tracking February 2008 Closed Transactions
• Feb 16 : The Other Door of the Mortgage Barn About to Close
• Feb 13 : What is your Mutual Fund Costing You
• Feb 8 : The Big Picture The Details Sometimes Both