Tucson MLS Statistics for May 2007
June 14, 2007
Post Tags: Tucson-Housing-Market-2007 , Tucson-Real-Estate-Trends
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The numbers are in for May and it wasn’t the static month April turned out to be. In April I compared the Tucson MLS Statistics to getting Socks at Christmas. The market seemed to take a pause with little change. May was a different story.
Tucson MLS Statistics Apr 07 - May 07 Summary
| Category |
Apr |
May |
Diff. |
| Avg. Sale Price | $276,426 | $280,589 | + $4163 |
| Total Units Sold | 1246 | 1313 | + 67* |
| Median Sale Price | $221,472 | $223,500 | + $2,028 |
| Avg. Days on Market | 65 | 61 | - 4 |
| Pending Contracts | 1217 | 1191 | - 26 |
| Active Listings | 10,387 | 9,721 | - 666 |
| New Listings | 3085 | 2960 | -125 |
| Avg.Sale Price NC | $278,467 | $291,398 | + $12,931 |
Average Sale Price In April was down $60 from the previous month. May however saw an increase of $4,163 to $280,589 the second highest average sale price in Tucson history. The only month it was higher was March of 06 at $282,439.
Total Units Sold was up by 67 to 1313. This number is still fewer than May of 06 by 14%, but better than Aprils reported numbers. Who knows what this means. These numbers are changed from month to month and back changed each month, so it is just a nice guess. Were there 1313 units sold? Maybe, Maybe More, Maybe Less, Hard to say.
I’ll have a post later today on “Tucson MLS Total Units Sold 2007 Reporting”
The “Arizona Daily Star” reports in today’s business section News and Notes:
“May home sales fell 14%; median price steady
Home sales in Tucson continued to fall in May and the median price stayed flat, according to a monthly report released Wednesday by the Tucson Association of Realtors. Compared to last May, residential sales were down about 14 percent at 1,313. The median price rose by about 1 percent to $223,500, according to the report. The number of listings has fallen to 9,721 from a record 10,387 in April. “
If the 1313 is changed by the same 41 additions for this past month it would an 11% decrease over last year. But why use last year to determine market falling? Soon those numbers are going to flip flop come August or September. Is that going to make it a “Stronger Market”?
Median Sale Price is up $2,028 over last month to $223,500.
From the quote above:
- Headline: “median price steady”
- First Sentence: “The median price stayed flat,”
- Third Sentence: “The median price rose by about 1 percent”
This figure includes SFR, Townhomes/Condos, and Manufactured Homes. The breakdown:
- SFR $235,000 45.4%
- TH/C $170,000 32.8%
- MH $113,000 21.8%
Average Days on Market 61 down 4 days from last month. I almost didn’t put this in the report since it is such a bogus number. The better measure is “Absorption Rate” which will be published in a separate post. For more information read the April 2007 Statistics Post. Specifically the section for Average Days on Market.
Pending Contracts decreased slightly by 26 over last month to 1191. This is not uncommon with the holiday weekend at the end of the month and so many High School and college graduations taking place in May. With 05 and 06 as exceptions May is traditionally a month with fewer contract pending.
Active Listings decreased significantly in May by the dreaded number of 666 to 9,721 making it the fewest active listings this year. This is what is being reported by many, (But this isn’t true at all because the Tucson MLS limited the number of areas reported. When only those areas reported are compared to last month the number of active listings went from 9,717 to 9721 an increase of 4)
New Construction jumped back up to an average sale price of $291,398 an increase of $12,931 with a total of 56 units sold for the month.
Here is the year over year summary.
Tucson MLS Statistics May 06 - May 07 Summary
| Category |
May |
May |
Diff. |
| Avg. Sale Price | $269,217 | $280,589 | + $11,372 |
| Total Units Sold | 1526 | 1313 | - 213 |
| Median Sale Price | $221,250 | $223,500 | + $2,250 |
| Avg. Days on Market | 50 | 61 | + 11 |
| Pending Contracts | 2019 | 1191 | - 828 |
| Active Listings | 8423 | 9,721 | + 1298 |
| New Listings | 3169 | 2960 | - 209 |
| Avg.Sale Price NC | $296,995 | $291,398 | - $5,597 |
Things once again are moving in both directions. Asking Prices are coming down, Sale Prices are moving up. The numbers are beginning to come together as the increases of 07 begin to meet the decreases from the last half of 06. There will be a convergence of the numbers coming in August and September of this year.
Asking Prices Down Over the course of the past 6 months asking prices have come down in slow increments. Even though many homes weren’t selling and remained on the market for long periods of time the sellers were reluctant to decrease the asking price by more than a couple of thousand dollars at a time; a process I call Riding the Market Down. In the past 6 to 8 weeks we have seen some asking prices dropping by 10, 20, 40 thousand dollars. Significant reductions bringing about two things:
- Those homes are now selling.
- Some people seeing these steep drops in asking price are taking their homes off the market.
It will be interesting to see what the number for June, July and August add to the mix.
As always, the complete Tucson MLS Statistics for May 2007 are available in the navigation bar at the right under the heading documents. I’ll provide it here as well
June 14th, 2007 at 3:27 pm
Okay, I must be a completely visual person. The colored charts got me off the RSS feed and made me comment.
Great job.
-Athol
June 14th, 2007 at 3:33 pm
So that’s what it takes. Okay, then I’ve got another nice color chart coming your way in a few minutes.